A growing share of leading quantum experts now believe cryptographically relevant quantum computers (CRQCs) could arrive within the next five to 10 years, as explained by Dr. Michele Mosca and Marco Piani:

From the blog post:
“Using the operational definition of a CRQC as one capable ofbreaking RSA-2048 in less than 24 hours, we asked 26 international quantumcomputing pioneers and major R&D players to assess when a CRQC mightemerge. Respondents also shared perspectives on key technical developments,including physical platforms and progress in quantum error correction.

Rapid progress across multiple hardware platforms

Neutral atom systems have advanced significantly in both scale and control, emerging as a leading approach alongside superconducting and trapped-ion systems. All three platforms have demonstrated important milestones toward fault-tolerant quantum error correction.

Early demonstrations of logical qubits

While still at an early stage, multiple groups have now demonstrated key elements of logical quantum computing—showing that quantum information can be encoded across physical qubits in ways that suppress errors.

Reductions in resource estimates

Advances in algorithms, error correction strategies, and compilation techniques have reduced the physical resources required for large-scale quantum cryptanalysis, making previously distant scenarios more plausible. […]”