Published in the version 2.2 online by German BSI (English version).

From the webpage:
“[…] Looking ahead, the conclusion of the study is that quantum computing is making steady progress towards cryptanalytic relevance according to the reliable mainstream: fault-tolerant (improved) Shor algorithm, executed either on a superconducting system with the surface code or an ion-based system with the color code. Major roadblocks in this scenario were resolved in 2024, bringing us a lot closer to this goal even without large disruptions. Our conservative estimate is that, as of the year 2025, cryptographically relevant quantum computers are likely to be available within 15 years. This is based on the necessary maturation in component quality – which is not large but tends to be slow, and the time scale to do a brute-force scaleup.

[…] We can furthermore estimate the needed timeline in a modular way: reaching a new objective in a concerted program would need about 5 years. The timeline for building a single scaled quantum computer based on current technologies could be thus presented as follows: 5 years to develop a new modular platform with fidelities consistent with previous experiments, followed by 5 years to produce and assemble such modules, with an additional 5 years to finalize the platform in appropriate quality and system size. Which also adds up to 15 years.

If the qLDPC-code demonstrators that are currently being developed perform well, this could even go down to about 10 years.”

Origin of text: https://www.bsi.bund.de/EN/Themen/Unternehmen-und-Organisationen/Informationen-und-Empfehlungen/Quantentechnologien-und-Post-Quanten-Kryptografie/Entwicklungsstand-Quantencomputer/entwicklungsstand-quantencomputer.html
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