In a recently published preprint (available via arxiv), Craig Gidney, a Quantum Research Scientist explains How to factor 2048 bit RSA integers with less than a million noisy qubits – research he has been conducting at Google AI Quantum.
In a corresponding blogpost on the matter and its implications on encryption, he states that in order to plan for the transition from today’s cryptosystems to an era of PQC, it’s important the size and performance of a future quantum computer that could likely break current cryptography algorithms is carefully characterized.
The demonstration that 2048-bit RSA encryption could theoretically be broken by a quantum computer with 1 million noisy qubits running for one week means a 20-fold decrease in the number of qubits from their previous estimate, published in 2019, he explains, but also that quantum computers with relevant error rates currently have on the order of only 100 to 1000 qubits, and the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) recently released standard PQC algorithms that are expected to be resistant to future large-scale quantum computers.
However, this new result does underscore the importance of migrating to these standards in line with NIST recommended timelines, Craig Gidney emphasizes.
Origin of text by Craig Gidney, Quantum Research Scientist, and Sophie Schmieg, Senior Staff Cryptography Engineer
More information and further details available https://security.googleblog.com/2025/05/tracking-cost-of-quantum-factori.html
Foto von Adi Goldstein auf Unsplash